Mitt Romney and Limitations

Mitt Romney has won a primary, and will win the next one but in both states it has come as a Pyrrhic victory. The objective of the Romney campaign should not have been only to win, but to establish themselves on grounds that the whole party could get behind. Instead, the man who was easiest to defeat (Perry) has dropped out of the race. His doppelganger (Huntsman) still stands there indecisive but alive. Ron Paul still stubbornly hopes that reason becomes an American hobby, while masking his own demons that everyone seems to ignore. Newt Gingrich, somehow, still thinks he's in the contest as well. However, all of that pales in comparison to the ultras lining up behind Rick Santorum with Perry and Bachmann fading out of the picture.



The Republican party since the political switches of the 1960s has been a party defined by two sectors, business and wealth and poor rural America. The former is a vague category because it refers to a wide number of people. Sure, it includes the 1% that all us commie liberals have been complaining about, but it also includes people below that threshold who believe themselves to be rich. The suburbanites, who as much as anybody were destroyed by the foreclosure and bank crises of the last decade, still hold to the idea that the amount of debt they incur does not make them different than other people whose net earnings are more than their gross earnings. (Gross earnings are obviously a horrible way to distinguish a person's wealth, but bling counts I guess.) The second part of the party comes from rural areas that would seemingly benefit from liberal policies, but where the moral Conservatism is overpowering to the point that no one can vote for Democrats.

The best Republican politicians of the last forty years have combined the two. On one hand, a fear of God or an immense evangelistic view of the world, on the other, an Ivy league, Wall Street, or Murdoch friendly image. Reagan was much like Romney in the sense that he came from a Blue state as a Republican governor. However, Reagan possessed a charisma Romney will never wield, was far less willing to embrace centrist views, and was religious to the point of Millennial views. (Reminding me that we should never give nuke codes to anyone who thinks he's coming on the end times, and even more someone with Alzheimer's and those beliefs). George H.W. Bush was a Reagan disciple, less charisma but more pragmatic views. He was elected on Reagan's merits as much as his own, and even more on Dukasis being inept. Romney has no predecessor to legacy, and Obama is the best campaigner I've seen in my life.  George W. Bush was elected, because he was a compassionate conservative, yet he was also a businessman (albeit a poor one) and an Ivy leaguer (also, an underachieving one). He was going to keep the country morally friendly, and also without the regulations that hamper economic development in theory.

Romney in private probably embodies the same principles that are needed to be a Republican candidate. He is religious enough to get the middle of the party and smug enough to please the 1% and raise far more than any other candidate. However, for many reasons he cannot get to the ultra-conservatives and Tea Party supporters. He might be the wrong religion, he might be too uptight and erudite, and he just might be too liberal. This is but a road bump for Romney; I maintain there is no way he can lose this nomination (Santorum lost a Senate re-election bid by 16 points), but when the general election comes where will he stand. The candidates remaining save Huntsman will destroy Romney's position with no regard to them losing.

Can he survive such a beating, with Obama already campaigning against him? Even worse, will he resort to McCain's tactics of trying to placate the ultras by nominating someone not worthy of the position, who can't handle the spotlight and is torn apart by some strong questioner (like Katie Couric?)? Or will he choose a VP like Huntsman so alike to him that he cannot possibly please the ultras? The problems that lie ahead for Romney are not impassable, but the reality is he attacked the wrong candidates in Iowa He allowed the race to open up to others, and prolonged a battle when his strength would be better used at later date.